Smith, representing religion, begins as an agent of the state, as it began as something used by early governments to control thought and maintain stability and power. In ancient Rome, while it served mainly to explain various issues that the science of the time could not, the myths and lore also made Rome into an empire by glorifying the image of the warrior.
As the trilogy progresses, Smith is first defeated by an enemy of the system. This is rather similar to the growth of atheism in the 19th century after a series of revolutions against conventional society when the radicals in Europe began to deny the optimism of Christianity. At this point, the first break between church and state occurs.
Then, Smith returns to destroy both the state and its enemies by consuming all of them. This is the point when religion takes on the expansionist view. For example, Islam was not meant to have all of its followers convert every living human. Yet we still have religious extremists and conservative governments in the Middle East. When religion returns to conquer the state and its enemies, it begins by spreading to and permeating the systems.
Finally, Smith is destroyed after assimilating Neo in an unexplained deus-ex-machina. While no major religion has reached this point yet, the creators of the trilogy may be saying that this is the fate of religions that attempt to assimilate everything.
In conclusion, religion follows this cycle:
Agent of state
Destruction and independence
Expansionism
Unknown fate, possibly destruction
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